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End of Transit
Valley of Danger
Where Robot Cars (Robocars) Can Really Take Us
Where Robot Cars (Robocars) Can Really Take Us
Or how computer geeks can enable the electric car, save the planet and millions of lives using near-term A.I. to make taxis and trucks deliver, park, recharge and drive themselves.
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People have dreamed of cars that drive themselves for decades.
Now, thanks to a contest sponsored by the U.S. military and further
work by companies like Google, Volkwagon and Volvo, they
are much closer to becoming reality than many people realize.
It now feels possible to make the bold prediction that if we, as a
society truly will it,
we can make them popular by around 2020. More
and more people are ready to declare that -- technology-wise -- it's a question
of when, not if.
The technology behind this is fascinating, but even more interesting
are other questions that surround the robot car future. Those
- The staggering numbers that command that we do it.
- How we might get past the social and legal barriers.
- How it will change energy, pollution, cities, transit, war, work,
real estate and
manufacturing -- and yes, cars.
I'll tell you why and how robocars
can deal with much of this, and
paint you a "roadmap" to this future.
I'll reveal why a number of the most interesting robocar
boons come from things they can do when there's nobody inside.
But I want to start you with
some amazingly huge numbers,
so large they seem almost absurd.
Nonetheless, I believe that robocars could, in the USA alone, per
year, enable savings like these:
- 33,000 lives and a million injuries (NIH). Mostly young people, for whom car
accidents are the leading cause of death among major categories. Over a million lives/year
around the world.
- 230 billion dollars of accident cost (NTSB). About 2-3% of GDP.
- 50 billion hours (or 1 trillion dollars) of people's time. Around 8% of GDP.
- 50 billion gallons of imported gasoline, replaced with the equivalent of
10 billion "gallons"
of domestic-source power plant fuel. Thus eliminating about 12-15% of
the USA's CO2 emissions and nastier pollution.
- A serious reduction in the urban land devoted to the ~600 million parking spaces,
estimated to be up to 10% of urban land in many cities.
Now multiply that by 5 to get figures for the whole planet. If that's not enough to
get you going, I am not sure what is.
|The case for robot cars||Start here.|
|Roadmap||You can get there from here. Plus a surprising amount is already for sale.|
|Roadblocks||Social and legal concerns that will get in the way.|
|Design Changes||How robot cars change greatly how vehicles are designed.|
|A Week of Robocars||A set of stories from the Robocar world. You can also start here for a different path to the message of this article.|
|A future vision for transit||How transit might be much better in the future.|
|Deliverbots||Changes small robot trucks may bring.|
|Whistlecars||Cars that humans drive but which self-deliver could come earlier.|
|Downsides||Some of the problems and downsides.|
|Privacy||Sidebar on privacy issues.|
|When?||When can this really happen? How much will they cost?|
|FAQ / Objections||Objections, misconceptions and different visions from earlier robocar predictions.|
|Geeks save the Earth||A short summary of why robcars are the computer person's best shot at making a big difference.|
|Parking||Why there could never be a parking problem with robocars.|
|More notes||More surprising consequences.|
|Urban Changes||The potential for "Robocar Oriented Development" in cities.|
|Teams||Summary of various robocar teams and projects working around the world.|
|Accidents||Details on legal and other aspects of the probable early accidents.|
|Speed Limits||Should Robocars speed?|
|Government||What should governments do?|
|Regulation||Regulating Robocar safety (and the case for a light touch.)|
|Cameras vs LIDAR||A discussion of the use of different sensors in the early Robocars.|
|End of Mass Transit||Robocars may spell the end for urban mass transit.|
|Green Transit Myth||Sidebar on U.S. transit efficiency.|
|Motornet||Data networks for Robocars -- Connected Cars.|
|Simulator||Plan for a robocar driving simulator.|
|Glossary||Some terms used or invented in this article.|
|The Numbers||Some transportation statistics that make robocars so compelling.|
- They're here: Robot cars (Robocars) are coming, and sooner than you think. Many
of the technologies are already present in real cars and prototypes.
There's an incremental path to get us there. Robocars make computers the
most important part of cars, and bring the Moore's-law acceleration to transportation. Google's robocars
have aready gone over 500,000 miles on regular roads, and done a 96,000 mile stretch without a safety
intervention -- even
taken a blind man on his errands.
Basic self-driving products
have been announced by Mercedes, Cadillac (shipping in 2013,) VW/Audi, BMW, Toyota, Nissan and GM.
- They're Legal: California, Nevada and Florida have passed laws enabling and regulating them, and California and
several other states are following suit. There are still barriers to public acceptance to
be overcome, though.
- Military-prompted, civilian made: The combination of military demand and desire for fancy safety systems
in high-end automobiles will drive most of the rest of the technology. See
videos of real robocars in action today.
- Enables electric cars: By providing a solution to the range/battery problem, self-delivered cars enable
the small electric car, which is vastly more efficient than
existing cars or even trains. Don't know who killed the electric car but robcars can save it.
- Greener: Efficient electric cars could reduce urban car greenhouse gas emissions by 80%.
- Less War: A move to electric cars would vastly decrease the need to import oil from unfriendly nations.
- End of Transit: Ultralight, single-rider urban robocars can get the
equivalent of over 350 miles per gallon. In that future, our 20-40
passenger-mpg bus and rail transit systems fade away.
- Autonomous: Unlike earlier designs, robocars will probably be fully autonomous (no
special lanes or central control) and ride the streets safely with human driven
cars and pedestrians.
- Saves lives: Every year we delay deploying robocars (and related technology) in the USA, human driving will kill another 33,000, and 1.2 million worldwide.
- Solves parking, congestion: Robocars can remove most problems with parking and traffic congestion. In fact, cities may need no more parking lots in the distant future.
- Truly enables alternative fuels: Through the ability to go refuel themselves when
not in use, robocars can experiment with
novel fuels without needing a dense network of refueling stations on day one.
Robots don't care how inconvenient refueling, recharging or parking are.
- Right vehicle: On-demand, cellphone-summoned robotaxis can let you summon the right
vehicle for the trip, freeing you to buy the right car for most of your trips
rather than insisting on a car to handle all your needs. If you buy a
car at all. And if you do, you might hire yours out when not using it.
- Self-delivered: Before the robotaxi, a car which will bring itself to you on demand
but which is still driven by a human could provide many of the benefits.
- Little public money: Robocars require no new infrastructure or public money. It's all paid for
incrementally by private citizens.
- Bottom up adoption: Robocars can be designed for a competitive market, and bought
by consumers. In electronics, this causes soaring innovation vastly unlike what
central planning of transportation offers.
Rich, technophile "early adopters" will drive the
technology before it's ready for everybody.
- Deliverbots: Deliverbots can change the economics of shipping and rarely used manufactured
goods with just-in-time on-demand rental delivery.
- If not here, elsewhere: If the USA isn't ready for them, Robocars will appear elsewhere first, like Singapore, China,
India or Japan.
You can leave comments at this blog post.
In addition, you can read and subscribe to the
Robocars section of my blog.
Here is a link to the "slides" of my Robocar talk as a Prezi.