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End of Transit
What is a Robocar?
What is a Robocar?
In writing about robocars -- self-driving cars -- I have a particular vision
in mind. It is not an uncommon vision, but neither is it the only one.
Here are the key elements of this vision:
- No new infrastructure: The robocar is able to drive on unmodified city streets, shared with
cars driven by people. No new infrastructure is necessary, though
some forms of cheap infrastructure (particularly non-physical infrastructure
like networks and databases) may be built as desired to make
things even better.
- Autonomous: The robocar works almost all the time by just being given
a destination. The occupants do not have to monitor it, though it's not out
of the question their advice might be used in unusual non-urgent situations.
That means they can always operate safely, but may sometimes need human
judgement on navigation or getting out of an odd situation.
Thus vehicles can also operate without people in them, to deliver
themselves, recharge themselves and park/store themselves. While they
might find uses in communicating with other cars or with central city
or street computers, this must not be essential to their operation.
- Safe: Robocars don't get approved for the road until they can
demonstrate a safety record a fair bit superior to human drivers, and
in fact safer than sober, alert drivers.
There are a few other attributes which are highly valuable, but not
- Rentable: Some vehicles will be designed to be easily hired out to
others as taxis. Eventually this leads to a city of "on demand" vehicles
where a cell phone can summon a vehicle in a few minutes and eventually
within a minute.
- Mostly non-gasoline: The use of alternate power systems, most probably
electricity, opens up new options in car design and allows vehicles to
- Minimally regulated: We want fast innovation with competing companies
selling to early adopters. Vehicles will be certified for safety but
beyond that the regulators should stay out of the way.
- Social, productive and comfortable: Single passenger cars will be
common and act as an office on wheels. Multi-passenger cars will offer
face to face seating and a social environment, changing transportation from
a waste of time to useful time.
Some may view the safety point as a cheat: I am defining a robocar as
a vehicle that's demonstrably safer than human drivers. That diverts
an otherwise important question of how safe the vehicles will be and
how they will become that safe. I discuss this issue a fair bit, but
my main goal is to explore, "what happens when we can make the safe
There are other visions of a robocar future, or the path to it.
- Many, for example, think
the right way to go is special infrastructure, with vehicles that only
self-drive on special highways and lanes, either apart from human driven
traffic, or sometimes with it.
- It is often proposed that we begin with a convoy technology, where a lead
car, driven by an expert driver, directs a virtual train of many vehicles
which follow the lead. This is easier to do, but I am concerned that
mistakes here crash 40 cars, instead of one.
- Some hope to put the robocars on the road early, before they can
demonstrate the safety record, possibly by having human oversight.
Indeed, a number of people have built robocars and let them drive
them on ordinary streets while they watch, ready to correct mistakes.
I have also seen proposals for robocars that need regular human supervision,
but don't need 100% of the attention of a human. In some visions the human
can even be remote, watching video over a network. Many military
ummanned vehicles operate this way.
- An early robocar form has more in common with PRT. It runs only on
dedicated guideways. The Heathrow Airport Terminal 5 parking shuttle
is an example of this, already in operation.
- I regularly encounter different views on whether people will insist on
owning their own cars, hire taxis all the time, or own a car but rent for
special needs. My vision allows all these modes and it may be difficult
to predict what will dominate.